
A four-month drought is wrecking Argentina's soybean and corn crops, with analysts cutting output forecasts. J.P.
Morgan estimates a harvest value loss of US$3.1 billion, or 0.5% of GDP, and Chicago soybean futures have reached one-year highs.
Argentina is the top soymeal exporter and a major corn exporter, so deeper crop losses tighten global supplies and support soy complex and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.