
Prolonged drought and record heat are threatening soybean yields across key Midwest growing states during the critical pod-setting phase. Scouts found variable yields for corn and soybeans, with soybeans more exposed to heat stress at this stage.
USDA data shows soybean planted acreage fell 4.6% year over year to its lowest level since 2020.
Lower soybean yields on top of reduced acreage tighten supply, supporting soybean and soybean oil prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.