
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which concluded Aug. 24, projected smaller corn and soybean crops due to drought and record heat in the western Midwest.
Pro Farmer put national corn yield at 172 bu/acre versus USDA's 175.1 and soybeans at 49.7 bu/acre versus USDA's 50.9. Soybean pods were being aborted in triple-digit heat.
Yield estimates below USDA's figures signal a smaller US crop and tighter supplies, which supports both corn and soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.