Exclusive: India faces record low August rains, threatening summer crops

After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.

• Aug 2, 2017Erratic Monsoon Rains Threaten Key Indian Grain, Food Crops - AgriBusiness Global-1.8%
• Aug 29, 2024Prolonged Monsoon Rains Threaten India’s Crop Outlook | Headlines+2.3%
• Sep 30, 2023India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino+0.8%
• Sep 17, 2026India rice output faces biggest drop in two decades, stocks cushion exports | Reuters+3.0%
• Mar 14, 2024US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+0.5%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 22, 2023Central US drought intensifies, threatening grains and soy | Reuters-4.2%
• Nov 3, 2023Erratic weather threatens Brazil’s run at another record soy crop | Reuters+1.8%
• Aug 2, 2017Erratic Monsoon Rains Threaten Key Indian Grain, Food Crops - AgriBusiness Global+0.4%
• Aug 29, 2024Prolonged Monsoon Rains Threaten India’s Crop Outlook | Headlines+5.2%
• Feb 7, 2024Argentine crops endure three weeks with scarce rain after estimate hikes | Reuters-1.1%

After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Jun 22, 2023Central US drought intensifies, threatening grains and soy | Reuters-7.3%
• Aug 2, 2017Erratic Monsoon Rains Threaten Key Indian Grain, Food Crops - AgriBusiness Global-0.2%
• Feb 7, 2024Argentine crops endure three weeks with scarce rain after estimate hikes | Reuters-3.3%
• Jan 29, 2026Heat wave hits Argentina, threatening corn and soybean crops-0.4%
• Aug 28, 2023India on track for lowest monsoon rains in 8 years -sources-1.5%