El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp

After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Dec 31, 2021Oilseeds at the turn of the year 2021-22 market report+5.5%
• May 2, 2017Probability of El Niño this year at least 50% – Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre+3.2%
• Jun 27, 2023Palm oil will rise in price in the second half of the year – forecast+12.1%
• Jul 7, 2023Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024-0.1%
• Mar 14, 2017Weak El Nino to have small impact on Asian crops this year | The Star+1.5%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 6, 2026Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre+1.7%
• Sep 14, 20232023 Corn Yield Forecasts: End-of-season Forecasts Suggest Near to Below-average Yields for the Region | CropWatch | Nebraska-6.5%
• Oct 6, 2022Is La Nina Returning to Southern Brazil?+0.8%
• Mar 28, 2024El Niño to La Niña-2.0%
• Jun 21, 2021The storm before the calm-3.3%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 6, 2022Is La Nina Returning to Southern Brazil?+1.9%
• Mar 28, 2024El Niño to La Niña-1.0%
• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+0.1%
• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-1.7%
• Sep 1, 2025La Niña may return but temperatures are likely to be above average-2.2%