La Niña may return but temperatures are likely to be above average

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 14, 2022May, Summer Temperature Outlook: Hotter Than Average for Much of Lower 48 | Weather.com+4.3%
• Sep 1, 2025Return of La Nina a Distinct Likelihood This Fall-2.2%
• Oct 12, 2020La Niña weather pattern to affect local agriculture but in a good way - AFDJ-1.5%
• Jan 14, 2022La Niña Conditions Likely to Continue into Spring - AgWeb+3.6%
• Oct 6, 2022Is La Nina Returning to Southern Brazil?+1.9%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 18, 2021La Niña’s Likely Return Could Impact Brazil, US Corn-1.4%
• Feb 27, 2018Dry weather conditions and high temperatures likely to reduce harvests in Southern Africa+1.6%
• Apr 14, 2022May, Summer Temperature Outlook: Hotter Than Average for Much of Lower 48 | Weather.com+3.1%
• Sep 1, 2025Return of La Nina a Distinct Likelihood This Fall+0.3%
• Oct 12, 2020La Niña weather pattern to affect local agriculture but in a good way - AFDJ+2.1%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Mar 3, 2021La Niña weakens, but influence likely to continue into autumn-2.4%
• Mar 6, 2025La Niña event is expected to be short-lived-0.0%
• Aug 26, 2019CQ tipped to have above average cereal harvest | Queensland Country Life | QLD+0.9%
• Oct 5, 2017La Nina could return cold, snowy tradition to Prairies - Grainews+4.7%
• May 28, 2020El Niño / La Niña Update (May 2020)-0.7%