Grains slightly higher off fears there is no Black Sea export corridor, beans and beanoil lower on lower crude off thoughts Iran and Qatar talks were productive.

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-2.2%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.6%
• Aug 20, 2026Attacks on Black Sea ships and ports drive sharp drop in grain exports-1.3%
• Mar 10, 2022Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam-3.3%
• Jan 23, 2026100 mln tons of grain transported via the Ukrainian Black sea corridor+3.7%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-3.8%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.1%
• Mar 10, 2022Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam+2.5%
• Jan 23, 2026100 mln tons of grain transported via the Ukrainian Black sea corridor+1.6%
• Jul 9, 2020Ukrainian farmers and grain exports hit hard by Russian blockade of Black Sea ports | Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation-5.2%

After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2026Corn and Soybeans Fall on US Weather, Pause in US-Iran Strikes - Bloomberg-6.1%
• Mar 30, 2022SOYBEANS: May Have Taken Out Too Much War Premium; Demand Remains Strong — The Hightower Report-0.7%
• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews-3.0%
• Aug 4, 2026CBOT grains, soybeans fall as oil drops on Iran hopes | Stock Market News-0.9%
• Apr 1, 2026Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg-0.8%

After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2026Corn and Soybeans Fall on US Weather, Pause in US-Iran Strikes - Bloomberg-7.3%
• Apr 13, 2026Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease on hopes for US-Iran talks - CNA-3.3%
• Mar 13, 2020Crude posts biggest weekly losses since 2008, hit by coronavirus and Saudi price war-2.6%
• Mar 30, 2020US, Russian oil officials to meet as Brent crude hits 18-year low | OPEC | Al Jazeera-1.6%
• Sep 3, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI erases all 2024 gains-2.7%