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EUR/USD rebounded from its 2026 low as oil fell over 2% toward $110 a barrel on Qatari mediation to resume US-Iran talks. German September retail sales fell 2% month-on-month, well below expectations of a 0.4% gain.
Falling oil eases energy-driven inflation fears and lowers fuel and fertiliser cost pressure on feed producers. Weaker euro-area consumption data and a softer dollar shift currency flows that influence US grain export competitiveness.
forex.comFiona CincottaNov 3, 2026forex.comFiona CincottaNov 3, 2026
investing.comFiona CincottaNov 2, 2026investing.comFiona CincottaNov 3, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
