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Oil edged lower as traders weighed contradictory messages about a U.S. diplomatic push to end the war with Iran. Brent settled near $102 a barrel after falling as much as 7% earlier.
Liquidity thinned as traders moved to the sidelines.
Possible resolution of the conflict is removing some of the risk premium in crude, but continued uncertainty over Hormuz keeps energy-linked input costs elevated.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.