Oil drops as traders parse Vance’s diplomatic manoeuvre on Iran

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2026Oil Drops Near $102 as Traders Weigh Outlook for US-Iran Truce | Financial Post+15.0%
• Apr 17, 2024Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk-2.5%
• May 29, 2026Oil prices soften as traders bet on renewal of US-Iran truce - CNBC TV18+2.5%
• Mar 24, 2026Traders bet $500 million on oil price just before Trump's post on delay to Iran attack | Reuters+15.1%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil Drops 15% as Leaders Move to Contain Supply Shock From Iran War - Bloomberg+4.1%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2024Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk-2.3%
• May 29, 2026Oil prices soften as traders bet on renewal of US-Iran truce - CNBC TV18+4.6%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil Drops 15% as Leaders Move to Contain Supply Shock From Iran War - Bloomberg-1.3%
• Aug 4, 2026CBOT grains, soybeans fall as oil drops on Iran hopes | Stock Market News+2.2%
• Jan 8, 2020Oil dives as U.S., Iran tensions ease and on U.S. crude build-7.0%