
Oil fell as the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, raising hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. WTI traded below $88 and Brent near $92, set for the biggest monthly drop since 2020.
Trump said he would make a final determination, while Iran said the interim text was not yet finalised.
A 60-day truce extension and possible Hormuz reopening reduce the crude supply risk premium, which lowers energy and transport costs for feed buyers. The deal remains unconfirmed, so prices could reverse if talks break down.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.