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The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, effective 1 May 2026, ending a membership dating to 1967. The UAE had produced about 3.4 mb/d before the conflict and could add up to 1.6 mb/d to markets once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The loss of UAE quota discipline could add meaningful supply after Hormuz reopens, a bearish medium-term factor for crude that would ease energy costs for feed buyers.
ig.comFabien YipApr 29, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
