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OPEC is looking to benefit long-term from Hurricane Harvey's disruption of US refining, as US gasoline prices trade at levels that would normally correspond to oil around $84 per barrel. Brent and WTI crude futures sit near $51 and $46 per barrel respectively.
The wide gap between refined product prices and crude suggests refinery outages keep crude demand weak in the near term, while sustained product tightness could eventually support crude once refineries restart.
reuters.comAhmad GhaddarAug 31, 2017After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
