Euro edges higher as Iran diplomacy hopes weigh on USD, PMIs in focus

After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Feb 22, 2022Dollar dips in choppy trade as investors weigh Ukraine scenarios | Reuters-0.9%
• Mar 9, 2022Euro surges as oil prices ease and investors embrace risk+0.9%
• Mar 11, 2022Euro rises as Putin sees 'positive shifts' in talks+0.9%
• Apr 24, 2017Macron emerges on top as France urged to reject Le Pen | CNN+1.9%
• Jan 22, 2026EUR/USD rallies above 1.1740 as easing trade tensions weaken Dollar+2.0%

After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Jan 27, 2026Crude Prices Jump to a 3-Month High on Dollar Weakness and Iran Risks+0.3%
• Apr 10, 2026Dollar set for weekly drop ahead of US-Iran peace talks-0.5%
• Apr 14, 2026Oil Down 3% as New US-Iran Talks Seen-0.6%
• Feb 22, 2022Dollar dips in choppy trade as investors weigh Ukraine scenarios | Reuters+0.4%
• Apr 1, 2026Gold set for worst month in more than 17 years as U.S. rate-cut hopes fade-0.6%