
Brent crude rose about 13% in October to near $116 as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the US-Iran war. Gold fell 7% over the same month, as markets priced Federal Reserve rate-hike risk over the geopolitical premium.
Oil at these levels raises energy and freight costs for feed production, but the rising rate outlook is currently overpowering the crisis bid across commodities.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.