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ADM Investor Services' May 12, 2020 commentary says futures markets are pricing in more Fed accommodation, with lower dollar, higher stocks and gold. It also cites an NFIB optimism reading of 90.9 versus 84.8 expected, April retail sales down 0.8%, and Saudi Arabia's plan to cut crude output by one million barrels per day in June.
Expected Fed easing weakens the dollar and supports commodities, while Saudi output cuts support crude prices that feed into biofuel and freight costs.
admis.comAlan BushMay 12, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
