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Corn and soybean prices jumped on rumors of a plan submitted to the White House by the Renewable Fuels Association and Carl Icahn to curb foreign biofuel imports and boost domestic biofuel demand. A White House denial of immediate action erased nearly half the gain by Friday, and oil and gasoline prices fell on oversupply concerns with record U.S. crude inventories.
A potential mandate-driven increase in domestic biofuel demand would support soybean oil and corn prices, but the lack of immediate action limited the rally. Lower crude prices weaken the economics of biofuel blending and pressure vegetable oil values.
greenbaypressgazette.comAlex BreitingerMar 3, 2017After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
