
US imports of used cooking oil (UCO) for biofuel feedstock have surged, reaching more than 3 billion pounds in 2023 and nearly doubling in the first nine months of 2024. Over half of UCO imports come from China, and the incoming Trump administration has signaled it may restrict them.
A possible tariff or restriction on UCO imports would shift biofuel feedstock demand toward domestic soybean oil, supporting soyoil prices. Uncertainty over the policy is a key swing factor for the feedstock mix.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.