Oil futures fell more than 5% in early trading after reports that the Biden administration is considering a release of up to 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over six months. The release would be the largest draw from US emergency reserves in history and is reportedly being coordinated with other OECD countries.
A record stockpile release adds about 1 million barrels per day of supply, pressuring crude prices lower. Goldman Sachs noted it would not resolve the underlying market deficit, so the price effect may be temporary.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports of a record 180 million barrel SPR release over six months triggered a 5% drop in futures, adding supply.