NYMEX May WTI settled down $7.54 at $100.28 a barrel and ICE May Brent fell $5.54 to $107.91 after the White House announced it would release up to one-third of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve over six months. OPEC+ also confirmed its planned output increase.
A release of 1 million barrels a day from the SPR adds substantial supply, pushing crude and diesel prices lower. Analysts noted the release is temporary and may not solve the underlying supply shortfall.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On March 31 Brent fell $5.54 and WTI $7.54 after the SPR release announcement and OPEC+ confirmed its output increase, a direct supply-driven selloff.