
Oil closed at its highest level since early March after OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to extend historic output curbs by an extra month. Saudi Arabia and Russia pressed for compliance and deeper future cuts for countries that overproduced.
Diesel demand fell to a 21-year low and fuel inventories rose.
Preliminary supply cuts support crude prices, but weak U.S. fuel demand and rising diesel stocks limit the upside for diesel and freight costs. The June meeting outcome will set the next move.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.