OPEC to raise oil production in July, stays mum on what’s next

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2025OPEC+ to Increase Oil Production—Again+4.9%
• Jun 23, 2018OPEC deal to raise oil production will 'rein in prices' - Algerian PM+5.1%
• Oct 5, 2025Opec+ plus to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels a day in November-2.7%
• Jul 5, 2026OPEC+ countries agree to increase oil production in August | AP News+7.0%
• Oct 3, 2025OPEC+ agrees to modest oil production increase for November+2.2%

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2025OPEC+ to Increase Oil Production—Again+6.2%
• Jun 23, 2018OPEC deal to raise oil production will 'rein in prices' - Algerian PM+7.6%
• Oct 5, 2025Opec+ plus to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels a day in November-3.1%
• Jul 5, 2026OPEC+ countries agree to increase oil production in August | AP News+3.9%
• Oct 3, 2025OPEC+ agrees to modest oil production increase for November+1.7%

After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.

• Jun 3, 2020Oil Rally Hinges on Next OPEC Meeting | Rigzone+6.9%
• Dec 4, 2022OPEC Plus opts against cutting production as oil prices fall - The Washington Post-12.5%
• Mar 31, 2022Opec+ sticks to output rise plans for May as US announces release of record oil reserves | The National-8.3%
• Jul 4, 2022Funds slash bullish bets on oil products amid ban talk, Goldman advises ULSD hedge-4.4%
• Mar 31, 2022OIL FUTURES: US SPR release, OPEC+ output hike send crude sharply lower | S&P Global-8.3%