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OPEC+ agreed to add 137,000 bpd in November after Saudi Arabia and Russia settled a disagreement over the size of the increase. Oil prices were near a four-month low, and unsold Middle East cargoes were accumulating.
The IEA expects a record surplus in 2026.
Rising inventories and a forecast record surplus point to continued pressure on crude prices. Lower energy prices can also reduce the cost of biofuel feedstocks and freight.
worldoil.comGrant Smith, Salma El Wardany, Nayla Razzouk, Fiona MacDonaldOct 3, 2025After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
