
OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed on 25 May 2017 to extend their 1.8 million barrel-per-day output cut by nine months, to March 2018. Brent and WTI fell about 4% on the day because the cut was not deepened.
The extension keeps about 2% of world supply off the market, which supports prices over the medium term. The market reaction shows traders had priced in the decision and wanted deeper cuts, so the price effect was bearish on the day.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.