Opec+ sticks to output rise plans for May as US announces release of record oil reserves

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 7, 2025Opec+ agrees another rise in oil output for October | The National+1.3%
• Apr 27, 2021OPEC+ sticks to plan to ease oil output cuts from May 1 | Reuters+4.0%
• Mar 31, 2022Oil slumps 7% as U.S. plans record crude reserve release | Reuters-10.6%
• Nov 1, 2025Oil settles lower as OPEC plans to increase oil output-2.0%
• Sep 1, 2021OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast+1.3%

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 7, 2025Opec+ agrees another rise in oil output for October | The National+3.4%
• Apr 27, 2021OPEC+ sticks to plan to ease oil output cuts from May 1 | Reuters+3.2%
• Mar 31, 2022Oil slumps 7% as U.S. plans record crude reserve release | Reuters-11.9%
• Nov 1, 2025Oil settles lower as OPEC plans to increase oil output-2.4%
• Sep 1, 2021OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast-2.2%

After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.

• Mar 31, 2022OIL FUTURES: US SPR release, OPEC+ output hike send crude sharply lower | S&P Global-8.3%
• Nov 24, 2021Reserve oil being released into market that may have peaked - FreightWaves-13.2%
• Dec 4, 2022OPEC Plus opts against cutting production as oil prices fall - The Washington Post-12.5%
• Jun 1, 2021OPEC to raise oil production in July, stays mum on what’s next+3.6%
• Oct 5, 2026WTI drops to near $89.00 as G7 taps emergency reserves+5.2%