
Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other OPEC+ members agreed on 5 October to raise quotas by 137,000 bpd for November. The increase was smaller than many analysts had expected, as the group sought to avoid pressuring prices amid weak demand.
The IEA forecasts demand growth of only 700,000 bpd over 2025-2026.
A smaller-than-expected hike limits the immediate bearish impact, but weak demand growth against rising supply still points to lower crude prices. Market share competition with US and other producers is adding to supply pressure.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.