
Oil futures rose more than 3% in US trade as the dollar index fell, while OPEC and outside producers met in Vienna and were leaning toward a 1 million bpd increase. US crude was up about 4.6% near $68.54 and Brent rose about 3.45% to $75.57.
US oil rig count reached 863, the highest since March 2015.
Expectations of a supply increase that falls short of earlier fears, plus a weaker dollar that makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for other buyers, support crude prices. Rising US output limits how far prices can run.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 15 past bearish policy events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.