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The dollar has weakened in 2018 despite supportive U.S. data and expected Fed rate hikes, with analysts pointing to faster growth abroad and comments from the Trump administration on trade policy. The author notes that a focus on cutting the trade deficit could cap dollar gains, and that a possible abrogation of NAFTA is a wild card.
Trade-policy uncertainty such as a possible NAFTA exit could disrupt U.S. feed and grain export flows to Mexico and Canada. A weaker dollar would support U.S. commodity export competitiveness.
westernsouthern.comNicholas P. SargenFeb 1, 2018After 15 past bearish policy events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
