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Eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, well above the expected 135,000 bpd. Brent dropped over 6% to below $70 a barrel after the decision, extending losses from tariff-driven declines.
A larger-than-expected supply increase from OPEC+ adds to oil surplus expectations, bearish for crude and energy-linked feed costs such as diesel and biofuel-linked demand.
bloomberg.comGrant SmithApr 3, 2025
cnbc.comRuxandra IordacheApr 3, 2025
reuters.comOlesya AstakhovaApr 3, 2025
upi.comDoug CunninghamApr 3, 2025After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The surprise OPEC+ decision to raise May output by 411k bpd versus 135k expected was a supply shock that pushed Brent below $70 on April 3.
The surprise OPEC+ decision to raise May output by 411k bpd versus 135k expected added a supply glut expectation and pushed Brent below $70.
Surprise OPEC+ decision to raise May output by 411k bpd (vs 135k expected) was a direct supply shock that drove a >6% drop in oil.
The surprise OPEC+ increase of 411k bpd for May added supply expectations and pushed Brent below $70.
