Drones on Russia's refineries are a diesel story, not a crude one - here's the number to watch

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 24, 2025Diesel Traders Bet on Price Spike as Russia Refineries Hit - TT-0.1%
• Aug 26, 2026Diesel Prices: It’s a Refining Crisis, Not Crude+11.5%
• Oct 28, 2025Diesel Prices Jump on Russia Sanctions and Refinery Outages - Bloomberg-1.4%
• Jul 14, 2026Russia, Strait of Hormuz combining to drive diesel higher after declines - FreightWaves+7.1%
• Sep 27, 2022Crude Rallies on Reports Russia Will Push for OPEC+ to Cut Output+9.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2019FreightWaves oil report: here are the oil and diesel numbers that OPEC faces this week - FreightWaves+3.1%
• Jul 14, 2026Russia, Strait of Hormuz combining to drive diesel higher after declines - FreightWaves+6.8%
• Oct 1, 2018US crude surges above $75 to the highest level since November 2014+2.3%
• Feb 26, 2022Will diesel fuel prices go up with Russia's invasion of Ukraine? | Commercial Carrier Journal+23.1%
• Sep 8, 2026Crude oil futures rise after Iran threatens retaliatory strike on energy assets - The HinduBusinessLine+12.9%