Crude Rallies on Reports Russia Will Push for OPEC+ to Cut Output

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Sep 24, 2018OPEC, Russia rebuff Trump's call for immediate boost to oil output+3.4%
• Dec 4, 2022Opec+ sticks to current output targets ahead of Russia crude sanctions | The National-11.1%
• Jun 26, 2018Oil surges as U.S. pushes allies to halt imports of Iranian crude | Reuters+6.7%
• Jan 28, 2020Arab News | China virus forces OPEC to weigh up extension to oil output cuts-5.7%
• Feb 10, 2023Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March+0.5%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 24, 2018OPEC, Russia rebuff Trump's call for immediate boost to oil output+5.8%
• Feb 10, 2023Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March-0.8%
• Feb 10, 2023OPEC+ Won’t Increase Oil Production Despite Russia Output Cut, Delegates Say - Bloomberg-0.8%
• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.6%
• Jan 29, 2026Brent crude rallies above $71 on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions-4.2%