
WTI closed up 2.8% at $75.30 on October 1, its highest close since November 2014, as sanctions on Iran began shrinking supply. Brent rose to $85.04 and progress on the NAFTA replacement eased demand concerns.
Higher crude raises energy and transport costs for feed supply chains and supports biofuel economics, while easing North American trade tensions reduced demand worries.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.