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After the Senate passed its farm bill, China imposed a 25% tariff on $34 billion of US goods, and soybean futures hit a nine-year low. Mexico raised tariffs on US dairy to as high as 25%, Turkey imposed tariffs on agricultural goods, and Russia won wheat sales from US growers.
New retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans, cotton, and other exports reduce demand and widen the price discount for US commodities against competitors like Russian wheat.
farmpolicyfacts.orgJul 31, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
