Loading…
A CSIS commentary warns that if the US exits NAFTA, Mexico could apply its higher WTO bound tariffs, which average 35% and reach up to 156% on some farm goods. The author notes Mexico buys about $18 billion of US agricultural exports annually.
A NAFTA exit and Mexican retaliation would threaten a large export market for US corn, soybeans, and meal, which would pressure US prices, though this remains a hypothetical scenario.
csis.orgRichard MilesNov 7, 2017After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
