
The Mexican peso fell as much as 1.4% after Moody's cut Mexico's outlook to negative and Fitch downgraded the sovereign rating to BBB. Trade talks with the US then reportedly failed, raising the prospect of 5% tariffs on Mexican goods from June 10.
Tariff threats on Mexico, a major buyer of US corn, soybean meal and other feed inputs, could weaken Mexican import demand and pressure US feed grain exports, while a weaker peso raises Mexican feed costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.