Latin American currencies fell on Wednesday, with the Mexican peso hitting a six-week low, after a report that a US-China phase one trade deal may slip into next year. The US Senate also passed a Hong Kong human rights bill that drew Chinese criticism, and new US tariffs on Chinese goods are due December 15.
A delayed US-China phase one deal raises the risk of tariffs and weaker Chinese purchases of US farm goods, a bearish factor for US soybeans and other ag exports, while risk-off flows hit tariff-sensitive currencies.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.