US-China trade stand-off and implications for FX markets

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 21, 2025U.S.-China trade war 2.0: What are the implications for global oilseed markets? | IFPRI+1.3%
• Aug 7, 2019Trade war escalation wreaks havoc in markets: Impact on FX | Lombard Odier+2.9%
• Aug 27, 2019Forex markets: US-China trade tensions in focus+0.3%
• Nov 20, 2019EMERGING MARKETS-Mexican peso leads losses in Latam FX on U.S.-China trade standoff-3.0%
• Aug 8, 2019US-China trade war: Soybean farmers are working new markets+1.4%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Aug 27, 2019Forex markets: US-China trade tensions in focus-0.2%
• Nov 20, 2019EMERGING MARKETS-Mexican peso leads losses in Latam FX on U.S.-China trade standoff-0.2%
• Jul 27, 2023Mexico: An Important Trade Destination for U.S. Corn-13.2%
• Jan 26, 2017America's farmers stand to lose the most in a China trade war+1.9%
• Jun 1, 2024Impacts of Mexico’s Proposed GMO Ban for US and Global Corn Trade-1.6%

After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.

• Aug 7, 2019Trade war escalation wreaks havoc in markets: Impact on FX | Lombard Odier+0.3%
• May 9, 2019Foreign Exchange Markets Anxious Ahead Of Trade Talks+1.4%
• Aug 5, 2019Oil resumes steep drop as U.S.-China trade row raises demand worries - MarketWatch+1.8%
• Aug 5, 2019Oil Slumps Into Bear Market as Trade Tensions Feed Demand Angst - Bloomberg+1.8%
• Aug 5, 2019China lets yuan break key 7 level for first time in decade as trade war worsens+1.8%