
The yen rose and Treasury yields fell as investors fled to safety amid worries the US-China trade conflict would worsen. China announced tariffs on $75 billion of US goods, the US planned higher tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and Trump said he would raise a further $300 billion tariff.
Expanded tariffs on US farm exports to China reduce demand for US soybeans and other feed ingredients, adding bearish pressure on related commodity prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.