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The Panama Canal Authority says the US-China trade dispute has cut US-to-China cargo through the canal by about 8 million tons since October, and Japan has displaced China as the second-largest user. China is buying US farm products less and sourcing soy from Brazil instead, and the canal forecasts $3.2 billion in revenue this fiscal year.
China substituting Brazilian soy for US supply reduces US export demand, which is bearish for US soybeans and the soymeal complex as Brazilian origin gains share.
panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.comAdrian ProzzoJul 16, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
