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Panama Canal Authority data show the US-China trade war has reduced US energy and farm cargo transits, with Japan overtaking China as the canal's second-largest user. California's exports for the first four months of 2019 fell roughly 13%.
Lower US exports to China, including agricultural products, shift flows to other origins such as Brazil for soy, reinforcing the export-demand headwind for US farm commodities.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.