
RaboResearch analysis examines how potential US-China trade tensions could affect US agriculture, following the Trump-Xi meeting in Florida. Soybeans and pork are highlighted as major Chinese agricultural imports at risk.
Trade friction could pressure US soybean and pork prices while boosting competitors' prices, which could reduce US feed-related demand over time.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.