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CBOT grains closed sharply lower on Monday, May 7, with July soybeans down 25.25 cents to 10.115 dollars and July corn down 5.5 cents to 4.0075. Limited progress in high-level Beijing talks fueled concern that the US-China trade dispute will continue, with AgResource estimating 4-4.5 million tonnes of old-crop US soybean sales at risk.
Risk to Chinese purchases of US soybeans is bearish for soybean prices and related meal, and a strong dollar further weakens US export competitiveness.
xinhuanet.comMay 8, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
