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China said it will levy an additional 25% tariff on about $50 billion of U.S. imports, with about $34 billion starting July 6. The list covers soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, beef, pork, poultry and dairy.
Tariffs on major U.S. feed grains and oilseeds would curb Chinese demand for U.S. supplies and shift trade flows toward Brazil, which is bearish for U.S. prices.
farmprogress.comBloombergJun 16, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's announced 25% retaliatory tariff list explicitly includes rice, which raises concern about lost US export demand and the broader trade-war sentiment hitting US grain futures, plausibly weighing on Rough Rice.
