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Farm Futures analysis says China, which buys about six of every ten exported soybean bushels, faces domestic pressures that could reshape U.S. soybean trade. Record 2016 U.S. soybean sales are running ahead, but the yuan lost 6.7% against the dollar and South China Sea disputes strain ties.
Concentration of soybean exports in China and the risk of policy-driven disruption add downside risk to soybean prices, while the weaker yuan makes U.S. beans costlier for Chinese buyers.
farmprogress.comBryce Knorr 1Feb 1, 2017After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
