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China is reportedly confident it can reduce its reliance on U.S. soybeans by cutting soymeal rations for hogs from about 20% to 12%, a change that could reduce demand by up to 27 million tonnes a year. The 25% Chinese tariff on U.S. soybeans is accelerating this push.
A sustained cut in China's soymeal inclusion would structurally reduce import demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal, pressuring U.S. soybean and meal prices.
cnbc.comReutersSep 20, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
