
China's yuan and stock markets attempted a modest recovery after a sharp sell-off, though investors faced heavy losses as the Sino-U.S. trade row deepened. The yuan was set for its biggest monthly fall since the 1994 exchange rate unification, and Chinese stocks were heading for their largest monthly slide since January 2016.
Neither Washington nor Beijing showed signs of backing down on tariffs.
An ongoing tariff standoff threatens US agricultural export flows to China, a key soybean and feed-ingredient buyer, and the weaker yuan raises the dollar cost of those imports. Capital outflow risks could further slow Chinese feed demand.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.