The yen rose after sources said a US-China trade deal was unlikely this year, while the yuan slid to a three-week low. Completion of a phase one agreement may slide into next year as Beijing and Washington remain far apart on tariff rollbacks.
A delayed US-China deal postpones expected Chinese purchases of US farm goods, weighing on soybean and corn demand expectations.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 22 past bearish trade events, USDCNY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.