
Concerns about the economic fallout of the US-sparked trade war pulled down Treasury yields and sent stock prices tumbling. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index weakened as much as 0.7% before paring the drop.
Trade war fears weigh on global growth and risk appetite, which can reduce demand for feed-linked commodities and pressure prices. The dollar's modest move signals investors seeking safe havens rather than a shift in grain fundamentals.
After 39 past bearish trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (26% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.0%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trade-war fears pulled Treasury yields down and weakened the dollar as the safe-haven bid shifted elsewhere.
Trade-war fears on March 4 lowered Treasury yields and pushed the dollar down, setting up the March 5 follow-through.