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The so-called Trump trade, built on expectations of rising yields and a stronger dollar after the November election, is in full retreat. Trade conflict has begun in earnest, with the dollar falling while bond yields dive.
Escalating US trade conflict raises the risk of retaliatory tariffs on US farm exports, which could weigh on soybean and corn demand. A weaker dollar partly offsets this by making US commodities cheaper abroad.
reuters.comTom Westbrook, Ankur BanerjeeMar 4, 2025After 39 past bearish trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (26% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.0%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The unwinding of the Trump trade (higher yields, stronger dollar) as tariff conflict began reduced dollar demand.
The unwinding of the Trump trade, with falling yields and a weaker dollar, contributed to sentiment-driven USD selling.
