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Chicago corn and soybean futures fell after President-elect Trump threatened a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and an extra 10% on Chinese goods. Forecasts for strong South American crops also weighed on prices, while soyoil rose on the prospect of more domestic biofuel use.
Tariff threats raise the risk of lower US export demand for corn and soybeans, pressuring prices. Higher soyoil prices from expected biofuel demand partly offset the decline in the soybean complex.
agriculture.comReutersNov 26, 2024After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's tariff threats on Mexico (a top US corn buyer), Canada and China raised fears of lost export demand and retaliation, and the report that corn futures fell on this news suggests a sentiment and trade-flow driver. It is dated 11/26, a day after the move ended 11/25, so it fits only if the news broke over the weekend or on 11/25.
